Who has the Biggest Guns? Boko Haram or the Military

What is the best response when facing a regional insurgency and your troops are fanning the flames with violent raids that leave as many civilians dead as insurgents? President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria seems to think it is to send in even more troops. On May 14th he declared a state of emergency in three northern states that suffer most frequently from terrorist attacks.

Unlike the “surge” of American troops in Iraq in 2007, which increased numbers but also refined tactics, Nigeria is going after Boko Haram, a brutal jihadist group, with a sledgehammer. “We will hunt them down, we will fish them out,”
the president declared on national television. In a single raid on the town of Baga last month, troops destroyed more than 2,000 homes; estimates of civilian casualties range from 30 to 200. Nigeria is likely to see more such incidents, potentially turning anxious northerners with no jihadist inclinations into terrorist sympathisers.

Something did need to be done. Boko Haram, which has killed more than a thousand people in recent years, has become better armed in the past 12 months. Mr Jonathan admitted that his forces have lost control of parts of his country’s north-east. A recent anti-terror campaign has been ineffective. “What we are facing is not just militancy or criminality, but a rebellion and insurgency by terrorist groups which pose a very serious threat to national unity and territorial integrity,” he said.

The state of emergency gives troops additional authority to detain and question suspects. They now have a free rein in the states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, where arbitrary arrests have already generated much frustration.